Mortality Rate Model due to Transportation Accidents in Thailand

Wattanavadee Sriwattanapongse, Sukon Prasitwattanaseree, Surin Khanabsakdi, Supreeya Wongtra-ngan


The mortality from transportation accidents is a major problem that leads to loss of human lives and property. The deaths as a result of transportation accidents are now accepted to be a global phenomenon in virtually all countries concerned about the growth in the number of people killed. The objective was to model and forecast the transportation accident mortality rate in Thailand using death certificate reports.
A retrospective analysis of the transportation accident mortality rate was conducted in this study. This study is based on the records of the national vital registration database for the 10-year period from 2000 to 2009, provided by the Ministry of the Interior and coded as cause-of-death using ICD-10 by the Ministry of Public Health. Multivariate linear regression was used for modeling and forecasting age-specific transportation accident mortality rates in Thailand.
The transportation accident mortality increased higher in males than females. The highest was in males aged 20-29 years. The trend slightly decreases in all other ages. Having a model that provides such forecasts of transportation accident fatalities, even if based purely on statistical data analysis, can provide a useful basis for allocation of resources for transportation accident fatality prevention.

Key Words: Mortality rate; Multivariate linear regression; Transportation accidents

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